Reports

Carter, M. L., J. T. Fumo, J.A. McGowan, E. Terrill, and R. E. Flick, 2017. Data Report: Surface Water Temperature and Salinities at Shore Stations of California, 2017. University of California, San Diego.

Carter, M. L., J. T. Fumo, J.A. McGowan, E. Terrill, and R. E. Flick, 2016. Data Report: Surface Water Temperature and Salinities at Shore Stations of California, 2016. University of California, San Diego.

Carter, M. L., M. Hilbern, J. T. Fumo, J.A. McGowan, E. Terrill, and R. E. Flick, 2015. Data Report: Surface Water Temperature and Salinities at Shore Stations of California, 2015. University of California, San Diego.

Carter, M. L., M. Hilbern, J. T. Fumo, J.A. McGowan, E. Terrill, and R. E. Flick, 2014. Data Report: Surface Water Temperature and Salinities at Shore Stations of California, 2014. University of California, San Diego.

Status of the Pacific Coast Coastal Pelagic Species Fishery and Recommended Acceptable Biological Catches: Stock Assessment and Fishery Evaluation. Pacific Fishery Management Council. (published annually)

Litzow, M. A. and F. J. Mueter, 2009. Four decades of climate-biology covariation in the Northeast Pacific: 98 updated ecosystem indicators, 1965-2006. North Pacific Research Board Project Final Report.

Mazur, L. and C. Milanes, 2009.  Indicators of Climate Change in California.  California Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, Integrated Risk Assessment Branch (IRAB).

Journal Articles
in reverse chronological order

García-Reyes, M., and Sydeman, W.J. 2017, California Multivariate Ocean Climate Indicator (MOCI) and marine ecosystem dynamics. Ecological Indicators 72: 521-529. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.08.045

McGowan, J. A., Deyle, E. R., Ye, H., Carter, M. L., Perretti, C. T., Seger, K. D., de Verneil, A. and Sugihara, G. 2017, Predicting coastal algal blooms in southern California. Ecology 98: 1419—1433. doi: 10.1002/ecy.1804

Tommasi, D., Stock, C. A., Pegion, K., Vecchi, G. A., Methot, R. D., Alexander, M. A. and Checkley, D. M. 2017, Improved management of small pelagic fisheries through seasonal climate prediction. Ecol Appl 27: 378—388. doi:10.1002/eap.1458

Bellquist, L. F., Graham, J. B., Barker, A., Ho, J. & Semmens, B.X. 2016, Long-Term Dynamics in “Trophy” Sizes of Pelagic and Coastal Pelagic Fishes among California Recreational Fisheries (1966—2013). Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 145.5: 977-989. doi: 10.1080/00028487.2016.1185035

Skern-Mauritzen, M., Ottersen, G., Handegard, N. O., Huse, G., Dingsør, G. E., Stenseth, N. C. and Kjesbu, O. S. 2016, Ecosystem processes are rarely included in tactical fisheries management. Fish and Fisheries 17: 165—175. doi:10.1111/faf.12111

Obaza, A., Hoffman, R. and Clausing, R. 2015, Long-term stability of eelgrass fish assemblages in two highly developed coastal estuaries. Fish Manag Ecol 22: 224—238. doi:10.1111/fme.12119

Kim, S.Y. and Cornuelle, B.D. 2015. Coastal ocean climatology of temperature and salinity off the Southern California Bight: Seasonal variability, climate index correlation, and linear trend. Progress in Oceanography 138:136-157. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2015.08.001

Ye, H., Deyle, E.R., Gilarranz, L.J. and Sugihara, G. 2015. Distinguishing time-delayed causal interactions using convergent cross mapping. Scientific Reports, 5. doi: 10.1038/srep14750

Checkley Jr., D.M., and Lindegren, M. 2014. Sea Surface Temperature Variability at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Pier. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 44: 2877—2892. doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-13-0237.1

Matthews, J.B. and Matthews, J.R. 2014. Physics of Climate Change: Harmonic and exponential processes from in situ ocean time series observations show rapid asymmetric warming. J. Advances in Physics 6(2):1135-1171. PDF

Seubert, E.L., Gellene, A.G., Howard, M.D.A., Connell, P., Ragan, M., Jones, B.H., Runyan, J., Caron, D.A. 2013. Seasonal and annual dynamics of harmful algae and algal toxins revealed through weekly monitoring at two coastal ocean sites off southern California, USA. Env. Sci. and Pollution Res. 20: 6878-6895. doi: 10.1007/s11356-012-1420-0

Miller, E.F., and McGowan, J.A. 2013. Faunal shift in southern California’s coastal fishes: A new assemblage and trophic structure takes hold. Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science 127: 29-36. doi: 10.1016/j.ecss.2013.04.014

Lindegren, M., Checkley, D.M., Jr. 2013. Temperature dependence of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) recruitment in the California Current Ecosystem revisited and revised. Canadian J. Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 70: 245-252 doi: 10.1139/cjfas-2012-0211

Ebert, T.A. 2013. Temporal changes in the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus along the west coast of North America. Climate change perspectives from the Atlantic: past, present and future. Servicio de Publicaciones, Universidad de La Laguna, pp.443-460. PDF

Carson, H.S., López-Duarte, P.C., Cook, G.S., Fodrie, F.J., Becker, B.J., DiBacco, C. and Levin, L.A. 2013. Temporal, spatial, and interspecific variation in geochemical signatures within fish otoliths, bivalve larval shells, and crustacean larvae. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 473: 133-148. doi: 10.3354/meps10078

Walker, B.D. and McCarthy, M.D. 2012. Elemental and isotopic characterization of dissolved and particulate organic matter in a unique California upwelling system: Importance of size and composition in the export of labile material. Limnology and Oceanography, 57: 1757-1774. doi: 10.4319/lo.2012.57.6.1757

Moore, R.H., Miller, E.F., and Love, M. 2011. Southern occurrence of the sand sole (Psettichthys melanostictus). Bulletin, Southern California Academy of Sciences, 110:184-188. doi: 10.3160/0038-3872-110.3.184

Miller, E.F., Pondella, D.J., Beck, D.S. and Herbinson, K.T. 2011. Decadal-scale changes in southern California sciaenids under different levels of harvesting pressure. ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil, 68: 2123-2133. doi: 10.1093/icesjms/fsr167

Sydeman, W.J. and Thompson, S.A. 2010. The California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA), Module II: Trends and Variability in Climate-Ecosystem State. NOAA Tech. Rep., NMFS SWFSC Environmental Research Division. pp.1-59. PDF

Santoro, A.E., Nidzieko, N.J., Van Dijken, G.L., Arrigo, K.R., and Boehm, A.B. 2010. Contrasting spring and summer phytoplankton dynamics in the nearshore Southern California Bight. Limnology and Oceanography 55: 264-278. doi: 10.4319/lo.2010.55.1.0264

McClatchie, S., Goericke, R., Auad, G., and Hill, K. 2010. Re-assessment of the stock-recruit and temperature-recruit relationships for Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 67: 1782-1790. doi:10.1139/F10-101

Breaker, L.C. and Welschmeyer, N.A. 2010. Detecting, Characterizing and Determining the Biological Response to Regime Shifts off the California Coast. California Sea Grant College Program. http://escholarship.org/uc/item/9296c41b

Parnell, P. E., E. F. Miller, C. E. Lennert-Cody, P. K. Dayton, M. L. Carter, and T. D. Stebbins. 2010. The response of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) in southern California to low-frequency climate forcing. Limnology and Oceanography 55: 2686-2702. doi:10.4319/lo.2010.55.6.2686

Breaker, L.C., and Flora, S.J. 2009. Expressions of 1976-1977 and 1988-1989 Regime Shifts in Sea-Surface Temperature off Southern California and Hawai’i. Pacific Science 63: 39-60. http://hdl.handle.net/10125/22745

Gelpi, C.G., and Norris, K.E. 2008. Seasonal temperature dynamics of the upper ocean in the Southern California Bight. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 113. doi: 10.1029/2006JC003820

Breaker, L.C. 2007. A closer look at regime shifts based on coastal observations along the eastern boundary of the North Pacific. Continental Shelf Research 27: 2250—2277. doi: 10.1016/j.csr.2007.05.018

Herrick, S.F., Norton, J.G., Mason, J.E., and Bessey, C. 2007. Management application of an empirical model of sardine-climate regime shifts. Marine Policy 31: 71-80. doi: 10.1016/j.marpol.2006.05.005

McKinnell, S.M., and Crawford, W.R. 2007. The 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and surface temperature variability in the northeast Pacific. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 112. doi: 10.1029/2006JC003671

Shanks, A. L. 2006. Mechanisms of cross-shelf transport of crab megalopae inferred from a time series of daily abundance. Marine Biology 148: 1383-1398. doi: 10.1007/s00227-005-0162-7

Denny, M.W., Helmuth, B., Leonard, G.H., Harley, C.D.G., Hunt, L.J.H., and Nelson, E.K. 2004. Quantifying scale in ecology: Lessons from a wave-swept shore. Ecological Monographs 74: 513-532. doi: 10.1890/03-404

Norton, J.G., and Mason, J.E. 2003. Environmental influences on species composition of the commercial harvest of finfish and invertebrates off California. California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations Reports 44: 123-133. PDF

Breaker, L.C., Liu, P.C., and Torrence, C. 2001. Intraseasonal oscillations in sea surface temperature, wind stress, and sea level off the central California coast. Continental Shelf Research 21: 727-750. doi: 10.1016/S0278-4343(00)00080-7

Hare, S.R., Mantua, N.J. 2000. Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Progress in Oceanography 47: 103-145. doi: 10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00033-1

Norton, J.G. 1999. Apparent habitat extensions of dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) in response to climate transients in the California Current. Scientia Marina 63: 239-260. PDF

Sagarin, R. D., J. P. Barry, S. E. Gilman, and C. H. Baxter. 1999. Climate-related change in an intertidal community over short and long time scales. Ecological Monographs 69: 465-490. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2657226

McGowan, J.A., Cayan, D.R., and Dorman, L.M. 1998. Climate-ocean variability and ecosystem response in the northeast Pacific. Science 281: 210-217. doi: 10.1126/science.281.5374.210

Mantua, N.J., Hare, S.R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M., and Francis, R.C. 1997. A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 78: 1069—1079. PDF

Tegner, M. J., P. K. Dayton, P. B. Edwards, and K. L. Riser. 1997. Large-scale, low-frequency oceanographic effects on kelp forest succession: A tale of two cohorts. Marine Ecology-Progress Series 146: 117-134. doi: 10.3354/meps146117

Cisneros-Mata, M.A., Brey, T., Jarreteichmann, A., Garciafranco, W., and Montemayorlopez, G. 1996. Artificial neural networks to forecast biomass of Pacific sardine and its environment. Ciencias Marinas 22: 427-442. PDF

Barry, J.P., Baxter, C.H., Sagarin, R.D., and Gilman, S.E. 1995. Climate-related, long-term faunal changes in a California rocky intertidal community. Science 267: 672-675. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2885947

Jacobson, L. D., and A. D. Maccall. 1995. Stock-Recruitment Models for Pacific Sardine (Sardinops-sagax). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 52: 566-577. doi: 10.1139/f95-057

Pineda, J. 1995. An internal tidal bore regime at nearshore stations along western USA – predictable upwelling within the lunar cycle. Continental Shelf Research 15: 1023-1041. doi:10.1016/0278-4343(95)80007-Z

Pineda, J. 1994. Internal tidal bores in the nearshore – warm-water fronts, seaward gravity currents and the onshore transport of neustonic larvae. Journal of Marine Research 52: 427-458. doi: 10.1357/0022240943077046

Dayton, P.K., Tegner, M.J., Parnell, P.E., and Edwards, P.B. 1992. Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Disturbance and Recovery in a Kelp Forest Community. Ecological Monographs 62: 421-445.doi: 10.2307/2937118

Pineda, J. 1991. Predictable upwelling and the shoreward transport of planktonic larvae by internal tidal bores. Science 253: 548-551. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2878989

McGowan, J.A. 1990. Climate and change in oceanic ecosystems: The value of time-series data. Trends in ecology & evolution 5(9): 293-299. doi:10.1016/0169-5347(90)90084-Q

Breaker, L.C. 1989. El Niño and related variability in sea surface temperature along the central California coast. Aspects of Climate Variability in the Pacific and the Western Americas, Geophysical Monograph, 55: 133-140. PDF

Breaker, L.C. and Lewis, P.A.W. 1988. A 40 to 50 day oscillation in sea surface temperature along the central California coast. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 26: 395-408. doi: 10.1016/0272-7714(88)90020-0

Breaker, L.C. and Mooers, C.N.K. 1986. Oceanic variability off the central California coast. Progress in Oceanography 17: 61-135. doi: 10.1016/0079-6611(86)90025-X

Gunnill, F.C. 1985. Population fluctuations of seven macroalgae in southern California during 1981—1983 including effects of severe storms and an El Nino. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 85 (2): 149-164. doi: 10.1016/0022-0981(85)90140-6

Dayton, P.K., and Tegner, M.J. 1984. Catastrophic Storms, El Niño, and Patch Stability in a Southern California Kelp Community. Science 224: 283-285. doi: 10.1126/science.224.4646.283

List, E. J., and Koh, R. C. Y. 1976. Variations in coastal temperatures on the southern and central California coast, J. Geophys. Res., 81(12): 1971—1979. doi:10.1029/JC081i012p01971

Berner, L.D., and Reid, J.L. 1961. On the response to changing temperature of the temperature-limited plankter Doliolum-denticulatum Quoy and Gaimard 1835. Limnology and Oceanography 6: 205-215. doi: 10.4319/lo.1961.6.2.0205

Hester, F. 1961. A Method of Predicting Tuna Catch By Using Coastal Sea-Surface Temperatures. California Fish and Game 47(4): 313-326. PDF

Arthur, R.S. 1954. Oscillations in sea temperature at Scripps and Oceanside piers. Deep-Sea Research 2: 107-121. doi: 10.1016/0146-6313(55)90013-7